Russian budget deficit planned at 0.9% of GDP in 2022

MOSCOW, Sep 22 (PRIME) -- Russia’s budget deficit will stand at 0.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP), or 1.313 trillion rubles, in 2022, according to the draft budget for 2023–2025 approved by the government and seen by PRIME on Thursday.

Budget revenue will amount to 27.693 trillion rubles, including 11.666 trillion rubles of oil and gas and 16 trillion rubles of non-oil and gas income, while spending to 29 trillion rubles. In 2023, budget revenue is expected at more than 26.1 trillion rubles and spending at 29.056 trillion rubles.

According to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the government is finishing drafting the budget. “We will consider today the package of documents connected with its forming, including a forecast for social and economic development, the budgets of two extra budgetary state funds and several others," he said, adding financing of partial mobilization will be considered as well.

The draft budget envisages a balanced budget policy with demand support and confident growth of the economy by more than 2% in 2024, he said.

INCOME SOURCES, GROWTH OF DEMAND

People's real disposable income will likely fall 2.2% in 2022, and grow 1.6% in 2023, 2.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. Real wages may fall 2% in 2022 and grow 2.6% in 2023.

The average Urals oil price is expected at U.S. $80 per barrel in 2022 and gradually fall to $65 by 2025. The production of oil is expected at 515 million tonnes in 2022, 490 million tonnes in 2023 and about 500 million tonnes per year in 2024 and 2025.

The Finance Ministry included additional income from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and the increase of taxes in the oil and gas industry, including natural gas export duties, in the period.

Income from state companies and banks' dividends including the Sberbank ones are estimated at 850.1 billion rubles in 2022, 544.1 billion rubles in 2023, 845.2 billion rubles in 2024 and 823.6 billion rubles in 2025.

The Finance Ministry plans to introduce an excise duty on sweet beverages in order to spend the money on diabetes treatment.

The Finance Ministry plans to borrow 1.747 trillion rubles through OFZ government bonds in 2023, 1.938 trillion rubles in 2024 and 2 trillion rubles in 2025.

The state debt is expected at 16.9% of the GDP in 2023, 17.3% in 2024 and 17.5% in 2025.

The average exchange rate of the ruble against the U.S. dollar is forecasted at 68.1 at the end of 2022 and at 68–72 in 2023–2025.

KEY SPENDING DETAILS

Spending on healthcare is planned at 310 billion rubles in 2023 and 309 billion rubles in 2024, on demographics to 921 billion rubles in 2023 and 886 billion rubles in 2024.

Russia will raise financing of the employment program in the conditions of sanctions.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the ministry plans to minimize the use of the National Wealth Fund money on the budget deficit financing.

Spending from the fund on budget deficit coverage is planned at 2.9 trillion rubles in 2023, 1.3 trillion rubles in 2024, and no spending is planned in 2025. Additional oil and gas income of the federal budget at the amount of 939 billion rubles is planned to be allocated with the fund in 2024 and 656.3 billion rubles in 2025.

The amount of the National Wealth Fund is planned at 8.8 trillion rubles, or 6.2% of the GDP at the end of 2022, 6.3 trillion rubles, or 4.2% of the GDP in 2023, 5.9 trillion rubles, or 3.7% of the GDP in 2024 and 6.6. trillion rubles, or 3.9% of the GDP in 2025.

(60.8685 rubles – U.S. $1)

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